Syria’s Transitional Government: From Victory to Insurgency

The Resistance Hub

The Syrian Civil War, which began in 2011 as a protest movement against the regime of Bashar al-Assad, saw numerous factions vying for control over the country. After more than a decade of brutal conflict, an opposition-led coalition finally ousted Assad’s government in December 2024. The new administration, led by President Ahmed al-Sharaa, quickly moved to consolidate power, establish governance, and stabilize a shattered nation. However, the downfall of Assad did not mark the end of Syria’s struggles. Instead, the country has entered a new phase of conflict as remnants of the Assad regime, sectarian groups, and jihadist factions launch insurgencies against the transitional government.

This article examines the rise of Syria’s opposition government, the insurgencies threatening its authority, and the broader implications for regional and international stability. By analyzing key players, emerging security threats, and governance challenges, we assess whether the new leadership can hold the country together—or if Syria will descend into another prolonged conflict.

The Fall of the Assad Regime

The Opposition’s Final Offensive

For years, the opposition-controlled fragmented territories in Syria, ranging from Idlib in the northwest to U.S.-backed enclaves in the northeast. While Assad retained dominance over Damascus and coastal strongholds, his regime faced increasing pressure due to economic collapse, international sanctions, and military setbacks. The opposition’s final push in late 2024 was marked by unprecedented coordination between various factions, including the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA), Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), and remnants of the Free Syrian Army (FSA).

A decisive turning point came in November 2024 when opposition forces launched a multi-front offensive, capitalizing on Assad’s weakened military. The fall of Aleppo—Syria’s largest city—was a psychological and strategic blow. Within weeks, government forces withdrew from Homs and Hama while rebel forces encircled Damascus. By December, the capital fell, forcing Assad and his close allies to flee to Russia. The regime’s rapid collapse was attributed to widespread defections within the military and the inability of Iran and Russia to provide sufficient reinforcements.

The Aftermath of Assad’s Departure

In the wake of Assad’s escape, opposition leaders declared victory and announced the formation of a transitional government. Ahmed al-Sharaa, a former political prisoner turned opposition leader, was appointed interim president. His government promised a new constitution, free elections, and an end to dictatorship.

However, the power vacuum left by Assad’s regime quickly triggered instability. The security situation deteriorated as various factions, including pro-Assad loyalists, Islamist militias, and local warlords, refused to recognize the new government. Reports of revenge killings, forced displacements, and sectarian violence began to surface. The victorious opposition now faced the daunting task of governance in a deeply fractured and war-weary country.

Formation of the Transitional Government

Ahmed al-Sharaa and His Coalition

Ahmed al-Sharaa emerged as a unifying figure due to his ability to bridge ideological and political divides. A former technocrat with ties to moderate opposition groups, he gained credibility through his efforts to mediate between Islamist factions and secularists. His cabinet included figures from various opposition backgrounds—moderate Islamists, former FSA commanders, and technocrats with Western backing.

However, the transitional government faced immediate legitimacy concerns. Many opposition fighters viewed al-Sharaa’s rule as an extension of foreign influence, particularly due to his close ties with Turkey and Qatar. Meanwhile, hardline jihadist groups accused him of being too lenient toward Western-backed factions.

Governing Amid Chaos

The new government inherited a shattered economy, destroyed infrastructure, and millions of displaced civilians. Initial efforts focused on:

• Security stabilization: Establishing a national police force to replace Assad’s security apparatus.
• Humanitarian relief: Coordinating with international organizations to provide aid to war-affected populations.
• Political transition: Drafting a new constitution and preparing for elections within two years.

Despite these efforts, governance was complicated by the rise of new insurgencies. While the opposition had won the war against Assad, they now found themselves in a battle for survival against remnants of the regime and extremist groups.

Emergence of New Insurgencies

Pro-Assad Loyalist Resistance

Even after Assad’s departure, his supporters remained active across Syria. Pro-regime militias, such as the National Defense Forces (NDF) and Alawite militias, launched insurgent attacks against the transitional government. Their operations have been concentrated in areas with strong pro-Assad sentiment, including Tartus, Latakia, and parts of central Syria.

These loyalists have resorted to:

• Assassinations of government officials: Several key transitional leaders have been targeted in bombings and shootings.
• Guerrilla-style ambushes: Attacks against security forces in rural areas have escalated.
• Foreign support networks: There is evidence that Assad loyalists are receiving funding and weapons from Iran, which continues to view the opposition as an illegitimate government.

Sectarian and Ethnic Conflicts

The fall of Assad reignited long-standing sectarian and ethnic grievances. The Alawite community, which had been closely aligned with Assad’s rule, now faces targeted attacks by extremist Sunni factions. Reports of mass killings and forced expulsions in former regime strongholds have raised concerns about retaliatory violence.

In the Kurdish regions of northern Syria, the relationship between the transitional government and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) remains uneasy. While both sides are interested in stability, disputes over autonomy and governance have led to sporadic clashes.

Jihadist Resurgence

Despite HTS’s role in the opposition victory, the group’s hardline Islamist stance has put them at odds with the transitional government. More extreme jihadist factions, including remnants of ISIS and Al-Qaeda-linked groups, view the new government as insufficiently Islamist and have launched attacks on its forces.

HTS, now a major power broker in the new government, also faces internal divisions. Some of its more radical elements reject al-Sharaa’s leadership and seek to impose a strict Islamic rule, leading to infighting within the opposition itself.

Challenges Facing the Transitional Government

Security and Stability

The new government’s biggest challenge is maintaining security across a fragmented Syria. Securing major cities and transportation routes has become a priority, with insurgencies rising. The transitional government has begun integrating various rebel groups into a national security force, but internal rivalries remain a major obstacle.

Economic Collapse

Syria’s economy is in ruins, with entire industries destroyed and millions unemployed. The transitional government has sought financial aid from Turkey and the Gulf states, but rebuilding will take years. Corruption and warlordism also pose threats to economic recovery.

Political Legitimacy

Al-Sharaa has pledged elections within two years, but many doubt whether they will be free and fair. Opposition factions continue to jockey for power, and foreign influence—particularly from Turkey—has raised concerns about the government’s independence.

International Reactions and Involvement

Western Nations

The United States and European countries have cautiously recognized the transitional government while urging it to protect human rights and prevent sectarian violence. However, Western military assistance has been limited, as there are fears of empowering Islamist factions within the opposition.

Regional Powers

Turkey remains the most influential external player, supporting al-Sharaa’s government and pushing for a pro-Turkish stance in policy decisions. Meanwhile, Iran and Hezbollah have condemned the new government and are suspected of backing insurgent groups.

Russia, having provided Assad with sanctuary, has taken a neutral stance, calling for diplomatic negotiations to stabilize Syria.

Prospects for Peace and Democracy

The future of Syria’s transitional government remains uncertain. While the opposition has won the war against Assad, they now face an insurgency of their own. The next few years will determine whether Syria can move toward stability or if the country will once again collapse into chaos.

Key factors to watch include:

• The ability of the government to suppress insurgencies.
• The success of economic reconstruction.
• Whether planned elections will be legitimate or lead to further conflict.

For now, Syria remains a battlefield—this time not between a dictator and his opposition, but between rival factions vying for control of a post-Assad state.