Planning for the Worst —
Scenario Tools & Citizen Guides
Scenario planning frameworks, decision triggers, go-bag construction, and the world’s best citizen preparedness guides — adapted for individuals and communities. Turn risk awareness into actionable plans before disruption arrives.
Generic preparedness produces generic outcomes. Scenario planning forces specificity: you identify the disruptions most likely given your geography, threat environment, and social context — and you build concrete plans for each. This converts abstract risk awareness into conditional decisions and staged actions.
Every major civil defense framework — from FEMA’s comprehensive guidance to Lithuania’s hybrid warfare preparedness guide — uses scenario-specific planning as its foundation. The scenario defines the threat timeline, the decision triggers, and the required resources. Without the scenario, a checklist is just a list.
A plan that has never been written down is a wish. A plan without decision triggers is a description. A complete plan specifies: what conditions activate it, what actions follow in sequence, what resources are required, and who does what. Every item on this page is a component of that structure.
Not all risks are equally probable or equally severe for all locations. Your first planning task is to identify the threats most relevant to your geography and circumstances. The following matrix represents common threats ranked by typical occurrence probability — adjust for your specific region and context.
Select your top 2–3 risks based on your region, infrastructure, and political context. Build a specific plan for each. Overlap is your friend — the supplies, communications, and skills that prepare you for a power outage also prepare you for a supply chain disruption. Layered plans with shared infrastructure are far more efficient than siloed, scenario-specific kits.
Each scenario below provides a condensed action framework. For full detail on physical supplies, medical protocols, and community coordination, refer to the domain pages for Physical, Mental, Social, and Economic Resilience.
- Activate PACE communications — confirm network status
- Deploy backup lighting and power banks
- Assess food — prioritize perishables first
- Check on vulnerable neighbors
- If no power after 48hrs: activate full food rotation plan
- If below -5°C: consolidate household warmth strategy
- If water pressure drops: switch to stored supply
- If no official update after 72hrs: seek community info
- Grab go-bag — do not delay to gather more
- Document property with photos before leaving
- Confirm family rally point before separation
- Exit via pre-planned route — not GPS in disruption
- Official evacuation order: leave immediately, no debate
- Fire visible within 1km: leave before order issued
- Flood stage rising toward structure: do not shelter in place
- Civil order deteriorating: don’t wait for peak disorder
- Assess and verify medication supply (30-day minimum)
- Restrict unnecessary movement — monitor official guidance
- Activate community wellness check chain
- Activate remote work and remote income systems
- Medical system saturation: delay non-emergency care
- Supply shortfall on critical meds: escalate urgently
- School/work closure: activate childcare plan
- Income disruption: activate financial reserve protocol
- Follow official civil defense shelter instructions first
- Maintain strict information hygiene — disinformation peaks
- Shelter with adequate supply if movement is dangerous
- Know local resistance / civil protection registration options
- Active firing reported nearby: take cover, do not flee into it
- Official evacuation corridor announced: assess risk before moving
- Communications cut: switch to pre-agreed off-grid method
- Occupation established: review Lithuania guide for civilian conduct
A go-bag is a pre-packed bag containing everything you need to evacuate immediately and sustain yourself for 72 hours without external assistance. It is staged near your primary exit, checked quarterly, and known to every household member. Its existence and readiness removes the single largest source of evacuation delay: the decision about what to grab.
Weight: a loaded bag should not exceed 25–30% of your body weight. Capacity: one bag per adult. Contents: only what you cannot acquire in the first 72 hours at any location. Never open the bag for everyday items. Check and rotate perishables every 6 months.
Decision triggers convert plans into automatic conditional actions. They remove the need for real-time deliberation under stress — which is exactly when deliberation is least reliable. Define your triggers in writing, agree on them with your household, and commit to following them when the condition is met.
For each of your top 2–3 scenarios, write 3–5 trigger conditions and their responses. Make the condition specific (measurable, observable) and the response concrete (time-bounded, assigned to a person). Review annually. The goal is to eliminate “should we…?” conversations during a crisis.
A plan without review degrades. Circumstances change — household composition, location, employment, health, skills, and the threat environment itself all shift over time. Build a structured annual review into your calendar, and conduct smaller quarterly checks on perishable supplies and communication systems.
Test go-bag communication gear — batteries, radio, power banks.
Check expiration dates on food and medications. Rotate as needed.
Run communication chain drill — confirm all household and network contacts respond.
Re-assess top threat scenarios. Has your risk environment changed?
Update contact list. Confirm network is still active and roles are current.
Update document backups — new passport expiry, changed insurance, new medications.
Run one tabletop scenario with the household — walk through a specific scenario start to finish.
Review and update decision triggers to reflect current circumstances.
Assess skill gaps. Identify one training or capability to add in the next year.
These national preparedness guides represent the global benchmark for civilian crisis readiness. All are government-produced, publicly available, and free. They contain specific scenario guidance, supply lists, communication protocols, and decision frameworks far more detailed than any single page can replicate.