Planning for the WorstScenario Tools & Citizen Guides
Scenario planning, decision triggers, go-bag construction and nine government preparedness guides hosted in full. Every figure on this page is attributed to the body that publishes it, and every download button delivers the document it names.
Generic preparedness produces generic outcomes. Scenario planning forces specificity: you identify the disruptions most likely for your location, then build a concrete plan for each one. That converts abstract risk awareness into conditional decisions and staged actions with named owners.
The scenario defines three things a checklist cannot: the threat timeline, the conditions that activate the plan, and the resources the plan consumes. This page supplies the method. The four companion domains supply the depth, and each section below links to the one that owns its subject: Physical Resilience for supplies and home systems, Mental Resilience for psychological stabilization, Social Resilience for neighborhood networks, and Economic Resilience for financial continuity. All five sit under the Resilience Toolkit.
This is household preparedness planning. It summarizes published guidance from FEMA, CDC, the National Weather Service and equivalent bodies, and it attributes every figure to the body that sets it.
Two boundaries hold throughout. Official instructions from your local authorities take precedence over anything written here, because they have information about your specific event that a general page cannot. And where an action carries legal exposure, this page states the legal position and links the source. It offers general information, and legal questions about your own circumstances belong with a qualified attorney. See also Know the Law.
Where to Start This Week
Look up your own address in the FEMA National Risk Index. It resolves 18 natural hazards to census tract level and it is free. Twenty minutes here is worth more than any general ranking on any page, including this one.
Find your evacuation zone and your county alert system, and sign up for the alerts. Most US counties run one and most residents are not enrolled.
Test the carbon monoxide alarms on every sleeping level, or buy them if there are none. Section 03 explains why this one comes first.
Photograph every room and store the images off site. Section 03 explains why this has to happen now instead of during an evacuation.
Agree one rally point and one out-of-area contact with your household, and write both on paper that lives in each bag.
Four elements, and a plan missing any one of them will stall at the moment it is needed: the conditions that activate it, the actions that follow in sequence, the resources each action consumes, and the person responsible for each action. Everything on this page is a component of that structure.
Hazard probability in the United States is overwhelmingly a function of location. A national ranking of threats tells a reader in coastal Louisiana and a reader in inland Colorado the same thing, and it is wrong for both. The useful instrument is a lookup against your own address.
FEMA publishes the National Risk Index, which covers 18 natural hazards at county and census tract level and combines expected annual loss, social vulnerability and community resilience into a single per-location profile. It is free and it takes minutes.
At jurisdiction level the equivalent instrument is the Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, defined in FEMA Comprehensive Preparedness Guide 201. Your state and urban area emergency management agencies complete one, and their published hazard mitigation plan is the second place to look after the National Risk Index.
The Seven Classes a Household Plan Has to Cover
These are categories, and the list below carries no probability ranking because a general page cannot supply one honestly. Rank them yourself against your National Risk Index profile, then build plans for your top two or three.
Extended Power Outage, 3 to 14 Days
Severe Weather Event and Flooding
Pandemic or Regional Disease Outbreak
Cyberattack on Critical Infrastructure
Extended Supply Chain Disruption
Civil Unrest and Mass Displacement
Armed Conflict or Hostile Occupation
Select two or three based on your National Risk Index profile, your infrastructure and your circumstances, then build a specific plan for each. Overlap does most of the work: the supplies, communications and skills that carry you through a power outage also carry you through a supply chain disruption. Layered plans with shared infrastructure are far more efficient than siloed scenario kits, and a household that builds three of them will find the third takes an afternoon.
Four condensed action frameworks. Each pairs immediate actions with the conditions that trigger the next decision. Read the safety block below first, because it applies to every scenario on this page and it addresses the hazard that kills the most people after the event has passed.
CDC records more than 400 deaths a year in the United States from unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning unrelated to fires, and the deaths cluster after storms and outages. The Consumer Product Safety Commission attributes roughly 858 deaths since 2011 to portable generators alone, which is 42 percent of all consumer product non-fire CO deaths.
The pattern is always the same. The power fails, the house gets cold or dark, and a combustion appliance comes indoors. CDC guidance on each of these is unqualified:
Never run a generator indoors or in a garage, even with doors and windows open. Keep it more than 20 feet from any window, door or vent. Never burn charcoal indoors. Never use a portable gas camp stove indoors. Never heat a house with a gas oven.
Install battery powered or battery backed carbon monoxide alarms near every sleeping area and test them before the season you expect to need them. If headache, dizziness, nausea or confusion affects more than one person at once, get everyone outside into fresh air and call emergency services. Suspect CO first and ask questions afterwards. Physical Resilience covers detector selection and placement.
Extended Power Outage, 72 Hours to 2 Weeks
- Keep refrigerator and freezer doors shut. Every time budget below depends on it
- Move any combustion appliance outside and confirm CO alarms have working batteries
- Activate PACE communications, meaning your Primary, Alternate, Contingency and Emergency methods in that order, and confirm which still work
- Deploy stored lighting and power banks while there is still daylight to find them by
- Check on neighbors who are elderly, medically dependent or living alone
- At 4 hours: the refrigerator is at its limit. Consume or cook what is in it
- At 24 hours: a half full freezer is at its limit. A full freezer holds 48 hours
- Anything held above 40°F for more than 2 hours goes in the bin, and you never taste food to test it
- If indoor temperature is falling toward freezing: consolidate the household into one room and follow the CO rules above
- If water pressure drops: switch to stored supply and treat tap water as suspect until the utility says otherwise
Forced Evacuation: Wildfire, Flood or Civil Order
- Take the go-bag and leave. Gathering anything else spends the margin you have
- Confirm the rally point aloud with everyone present before you separate
- Use the pre-planned route. Routing apps send everyone down the same road and do not know which roads are cut
- Tell your out-of-area contact where you are going and by which route
- Property photographs belong in Section 01, done in advance and stored off site. An evacuation is the wrong moment to start
- Evacuation Order for your zone: leave immediately, with no further discussion
- Evacuation Warning for your zone: leave. CAL FIRE is explicit that leaving before the order is issued is the safer choice
- Wildfire, any time you feel unsafe: go. Rate of spread, wind and terrain decide the risk, and no distance you can see is a usable substitute for them
- Flood, before water reaches the roads: evacuate on official instruction, early
- Flood, once water is on the roads: stop evacuating and move to the highest safe floor. Read the warning below before you act on this one
Pandemic or Extended Health Emergency
- Count actual pills on hand for every prescription in the household, including the ones nobody thinks about
- Request refills at the earliest date your plan allows and keep requesting on schedule
- Follow official guidance on movement, which will be specific to the pathogen in ways a general plan cannot anticipate
- Activate the wellness check chain from Social Resilience
- Activate remote work and remote income arrangements from Economic Resilience
- Hospitals reporting saturation: defer elective and non-urgent care, and say so to the household in advance
- Any critical medication below 14 days on hand: escalate to the prescriber and the pharmacist the same day
- School or workplace closure announced: activate the childcare and dependant care plan
- Household income disrupted: activate the reserve protocol and the benefit applications together, because both take time
- Anyone in the household deteriorating psychologically: see Section 05 for the trigger and the numbers to call
Armed Conflict or Hostile Occupation
- Follow official civil defense shelter instructions ahead of any plan written here
- Maintain information hygiene. Disinformation volume peaks early, and Countering Misinformation covers the verification drill
- Shelter with adequate supply where movement carries more risk than staying
- Review Identity Discipline and Digital Security and Privacy before your devices become a record of your movements
- Read the legal position below before considering any organized civil protection role
- Firing reported nearby: take cover where you are. Moving toward or across it is the greater risk
- Evacuation corridor announced: verify the source before moving, because announced corridors have been used as targeting devices
- Communications cut: switch to the pre-agreed off-grid method and the pre-agreed physical meeting point
- Occupation established: the Lithuanian guide in Section 07 is the most detailed published civilian conduct material available in English
The National Weather Service publishes the numbers that matter here. Six inches of fast moving water knocks an adult off their feet. Twelve inches carries away most cars. Two feet carries away SUVs and trucks. More than half of all flood related drownings happen when a vehicle is driven into flood water, and walking into or near flood water is the second leading cause.
This is why the flood trigger inverts partway through the event. Evacuating early, on official instruction, before roads are cut, is the safest option available. Once water is on the roads that option has closed, and moving to the highest safe floor becomes the better one. Do not drive through flood water, and do not walk through it. If you go up inside a building, take tools with you and avoid a sealed attic with no way out. See NWS Turn Around Don’t Drown.
This section previously pointed readers toward local resistance and civil protection registration. That guidance was wrong for a US readership in three ways, and the correction is worth more than the original.
There is no US civilian territorial defense registry. The lawful organized pathways are Community Emergency Response Teams, the Medical Reserve Corps, state defense forces and the National Guard. Those are the doors that exist.
Organizing privately as an armed unit is a standing criminal offense in most of the country. Georgetown Law’s Institute for Constitutional Advocacy and Protection records that 30 states prohibit groups from organizing as private military units without state authorization, and 48 state constitutions subordinate the military to civil authority. The Supreme Court upheld such a statute in Presser v. Illinois in 1886 and confirmed in District of Columbia v. Heller in 2008 that the Second Amendment does not prevent the prohibition of private paramilitary organizations. Federal exposure under 18 U.S.C. 2383 runs to ten years and permanent disqualification from federal office.
Advance organizing forfeits the one protection that requires no state sanction. Under Geneva Convention III Article 4A(6), a levée en masse covers inhabitants of non-occupied territory who spontaneously take up arms on the enemy’s approach where there has been no time to organize. Spontaneity is the operative word, and pre-registration defeats it. Outside that route, a resistance group qualifies for combatant status under Article 4A(2) only by meeting four conditions together: responsible command, a fixed distinctive sign recognizable at a distance, carrying arms openly, and operating in accordance with the laws and customs of war. A person who fails both routes is an unprivileged belligerent: targetable, without prisoner of war status, and prosecutable under ordinary domestic law for acts that would be lawful for a privileged combatant.
The Resistance Hub covers this material as doctrine in International Law and the Resistance Operating Concept. Understanding the categories is useful. Presenting enrollment in one of them as a household action item is what this page will no longer do.
A go-bag is packed in advance, staged near your primary exit, checked quarterly, and known to every household member. Its value is that it removes the largest single source of evacuation delay, which is the decision about what to take.
This section covers the bag. Physical Resilience owns the home supply and the product recommendations, and the two pages are built to be read together: the bag bridges you to the cache, and the cache bridges you to resupply.
No federal body publishes a document defining a 72-hour standard. What exists is a floor and a direction of travel. CDC and Ready.gov set at least a three-day supply as the minimum, and CDC pairs it with the advice to store two weeks if you can. State emergency management agencies have moved further: Washington and Wyoming both publish two-week household postures.
So the honest framing uses two containers. Three days is what the bag carries. Two weeks is what the home holds. The 72-hour kit as a named object comes out of preparedness culture, and federal doctrine never adopted the term. This page uses it as a convenient unit while attributing the floor to the body that sets it.
The federal figure is one gallon, about 3.8 liters, per person per day, covering drinking and sanitation together. Three days is three gallons, roughly 11.4 liters, and that water alone weighs about 25 pounds. Physical Resilience publishes the same figure for the home supply.
A portable bag cannot carry it, and pretending otherwise is how kits end up with a token bottle in them. The working answer is to split the requirement across three places: 2 to 3 liters carried on the person, filtration and purification tablets to extend it, and the full three gallons per person staged in the vehicle and at home. Treat every liter in the bag as a bridge to the cache, and treat the filter as the thing that makes the bridge long enough.
Use 20 percent of body weight as the working ceiling for a fit adult, which matches long-standing backpacking convention, and 15 percent for a child, which is the American Academy of Pediatrics figure for school backpacks. For context on the upper end, US Army FM 21-18 caps the fighting load at 48 pounds and ATP 3-21.8 treats anything above 45 percent of body weight as an emergency measure. Those figures describe conditioned soldiers, and a household includes people who are neither.
One bag per adult. Pack only what you cannot obtain in the first three days at your destination. Keep the bag closed for everyday needs, because a bag that gets opened is a bag that is missing something. Rotate perishables every six months and check batteries at the same time.
Identity & Documents
Communication & Navigation
Water & Food
Medical & Hygiene
Shelter & Warmth
Tools & Light
Medication, seven days in the bag against thirty in a pandemic. Both figures are correct for their situation and the reason is worth stating. A bag holds what you can physically rotate without letting anything expire, and most US insurance plans limit refills to 30 days with refill-too-soon controls that make deeper stockpiling difficult outside a declared emergency. Seven days is the achievable carried figure. Thirty days is the shelter-in-place target when pharmacy access is the thing at risk. Many state boards of pharmacy authorize emergency refills only after a declaration, which is worth knowing before you need one.
Cash, and why this page gives no household total. Economic Resilience establishes that no US federal body publishes a household cash figure. The one sourced comparison available is Sveriges Riksbank, which suggests roughly a week of essential purchases per adult in mixed denominations. Hold small bills, because change will be scarce and a fifty buys nothing at a stall. Two limits apply to money in a bag: the standard homeowners policy caps money, coins and stored value cards at 200 dollars, a safe does not change that, and cash carried away from the property sits outside on-premises cover entirely. The prepaid card in your document packet falls under the same cap.
Decision triggers convert a plan into a set of conditional actions that fire without deliberation. They exist because deliberation is least reliable at exactly the moment a crisis demands it. Write them down, agree them with your household while everyone is calm, and commit to acting when the condition is met.
The six below are worked examples. Where a trigger reflects published guidance the guidance is cited in Section 08. Where a trigger is a household convention it is labelled as one, because a convention presented as a standard is how a page loses the reader’s trust.
A trigger that says escalate to crisis resources without naming one is useless at the moment it fires. These are the two that apply, both verified current:
988 Suicide & Crisis Lifeline. Call or text 988 anywhere in the United States, any time.
SAMHSA Disaster Distress Helpline. Call or text 1-800-985-5990. This one is built specifically for emotional distress related to natural and human-caused disasters, which is this page’s subject exactly, and it runs year round.
Write both numbers on the paper contact list in every go-bag. Mental Resilience covers what to do in the hours around a call.
For each of your top two or three scenarios, write three to five conditions and their responses. Make each condition observable or measurable, so two people would agree it had happened, and make each response concrete, time-bounded and assigned to a named person. Review them once a year. The purpose is to remove the question of whether to act while the answer still has time to matter.
A plan degrades without review. Household composition, address, employment, health, skills and the hazard profile itself all shift, and a plan written three years ago describes a household that no longer exists. Put a structured annual review in the calendar and run smaller quarterly checks on the things that expire.
The quarterly check takes about twenty minutes. The annual review takes an evening, and the tabletop walkthrough at the end of it is the single item that finds the gaps the checklists miss.
Quarterly, Twenty Minutes
Test the go-bag electronics: radio, headlamp, power bank. Charge the bank and swap any battery over two years old.
Check expiry dates on rations, water treatment tablets and medication, and rotate anything inside six months.
Press the test button on every carbon monoxide and smoke alarm, on every sleeping level.
Run one communication chain drill and confirm every household and network contact actually responds.
Annually, One Evening
Re-run your address through the National Risk Index and check whether your top hazards have changed.
Update the printed contact list and confirm the out-of-area contact still agrees to the role.
Refresh the document set and the room-by-room property photographs, and confirm the off-site copy opens. See Economic Resilience for the document categories and the 3-2-1 backup rule.
Run one tabletop scenario with the whole household, start to finish, out loud. Pick a different one each year.
Review every decision trigger against current circumstances and delete the ones that no longer apply.
Identify one capability gap and one training course to close it. CERT training is free in most US counties and takes about twenty hours.
Every card below links directly to the document it names. Each states the publishing body, the edition where the document declares one, and the year, because a guide described without its edition is a different guide. All nine were opened and their front matter read, so none of this is inferred from filenames.
On rights: The Resistance Hub makes no claim about what you may do with these documents. Eight are published by national governments or their agencies and one by an international institution, and each was issued for public distribution by its publisher. Two carry explicit copyright notices. Germany’s reserves reproduction to the limits of applicable copyright law while expressly inviting citation with full source attribution. Lithuania’s asserts copyright to the Ministry of National Defence and, separately, to the illustrator. Reproduction terms are a matter for the publisher, and the publisher is named on every card.
Prepare to Survive Emergencies and War
All-Out Defense Contingency Handbook
In Case of Crisis: Taiwan’s National Public Safety Guide
Prepared People Cope Better
Hazard Notification
72 Hours: What To Do In Case Of A Crisis
Guide for Emergency Preparedness and Correct Action in Emergency Situations
Are You Ready? An In-Depth Guide to Citizen Preparedness
Resilience Reference Curriculum
The wider repository holds 24 guides across 27 files, including Norway, Sweden, Poland, Ukraine, Spain, Switzerland, France, the United Kingdom, Romania, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Australia, New Zealand and Canada.
Browse the Full RepositoryEvery figure this page publishes, mapped to the body that publishes it. Where this page uses a household convention instead of a published standard, the row says so.
Three figures on this page are household conventions with no published standard behind them, and they are marked where they appear: the ten minute departure target in Section 05, the 48 hour cash trigger in Section 05, and the two missed check-ins welfare rule in Section 05. Adopt them, adjust them or replace them. What matters is that you know which figures carry a federal body behind them and which carry only us.
Six books on how people decide under uncertainty, why plans fail, and how risk gets misjudged. They sit behind the method on this page. The supply lists belong to Physical Resilience.
Mission Improbable
On what Clarke calls fantasy documents: emergency plans written to reassure, with working left as a secondary aim. The most useful critique of everything this page is trying to do, and the reason Section 06 insists on the tabletop walkthrough.
Check price on AmazonThe Art of the Long View
The founding practical text on scenario planning, written for organizations and adaptable to a household without much translation. Section 01’s method comes from here.
Check price on AmazonSources of Power
Klein’s fieldwork with fire commanders and intensive care nurses produced recognition-primed decision making, which explains why pre-set triggers outperform deliberation under stress. The mechanism behind Section 05.
Check price on AmazonThe Social Roots of Risk
Disaster losses track the decisions communities make about where and how to build, more than they track the hazards themselves. The argument underneath Section 02’s insistence on a location-specific lookup.
Check price on AmazonThe Gray Rhino
On the highly probable, high impact threat that is visible well in advance and ignored anyway. Reads as a direct account of why households with a known hazard profile still have no plan.
Check price on AmazonNormal Accidents
Why tightly coupled, complex systems fail in ways no operator can anticipate. The reason a household plan assumes the grid, the water and the payment network can go together in one stroke.
Check price on Amazon