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Effective Counter Unconventional Warfare
The 2019 ARIS study Fostering Effective Counter Unconventional Warfare/Occupation set out to answer a question that the war in Ukraine, the 2014 annexation of Crimea, and the cyber assault on Estonia in 2007 had already made urgent: how can a state on Russia’s strategic periphery prepare to resist aggression that arrives below the threshold of…
Cyber Partisans and Digital Sabotage
In January 2022, a small group of anonymous Belarusian hackers infiltrated the computer systems of Belarusian Railways and forced the network to revert to paper-based operations. The target was not the railway itself but the Russian military equipment flowing through Belarus toward Ukraine’s northern border in preparation for what Moscow was still calling joint military…
Africa’s Expanding Gray Zone
In January 2026, fighters affiliated with the Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP) struck the international airport in Niamey, Niger’s capital, marking the group’s first major attack on a hardened target near a Sahelian seat of government. Weeks later, Russia’s Defense Minister Yunus-bek Yevkurov arrived in Niamey to discuss expanding Africa Corps operations, the latest chapter…
Russia’s Crime-Terror Nexus: How the GRU Weaponized Criminal Networks for Sabotage in Europe
From Intelligence Officers to Disposable Agents Between February 2022 and February 2026, European authorities documented at least 151 sabotage incidents linked to Russian intelligence services. The tally, compiled jointly by the International Centre for Counter-Terrorism and GLOBSEC, represents only cases where completed investigations allow confident attribution. The actual number is almost certainly higher. Germany alone…
Strait of Hormuz Irregular Warfare Analysis
The Commercial Shutdown Came First On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury, a joint air and maritime campaign targeting Iranian command infrastructure, ballistic missile sites, and naval assets. Within hours, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps began issuing warnings to vessels: no ship would be allowed to pass through the…
What is Hybrid Warfare? A Comprehensive Guide
Hybrid warfare is the coordinated use of military and non-military tools — including cyber attacks, disinformation, economic coercion, sabotage, proxy forces, and covert action — to achieve strategic objectives while remaining below the threshold of conventional armed conflict. The defining feature is not any single method, but the deliberate integration of multiple domains simultaneously, designed…
Rail Disruptions at Milano Cortina 2026
Updated March 2026 Since this article was first published, significant developments have clarified the scale and investigative trajectory of the Milano Cortina rail sabotage. Three coordinated incidents struck on February 7, 2026 — the opening day of the Winter Olympics — within a four-hour window: electrical cables were severed on the Bologna high-speed corridor, an…
Lithuania Uncovers GRU-Linked Sabotage Cell
VILNIUS — In a striking public attribution this week, Lithuanian authorities said they have charged six foreign nationals in connection with a Russian military intelligence-linked sabotage campaign targeting infrastructure connected to European security and Ukraine support. This case, and related incidents from Poland to the Baltic Sea, illustrates a pattern of hybrid sabotage that European…