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Guinea-Bissau: Anatomy of a Successful Coup
// Updated August 2026 This article originally reported the Guinea-Bissau coup of 26 November 2025 as a failed attempt. That was wrong, and the sections below have been rewritten. The coup succeeded. President Umaro Sissoco Embaló was detained at his office, flown to Senegal on 27 November and later relocated to the Republic of the…
Venezuela Contingency Operation: Resistance Potential and Irregular Warfare Risk
// Updated August 2026 This assessment was published on 3 December 2025, before the United States acted. On 3 January 2026 US special operations forces captured Nicolás Maduro and his wife in Caracas and flew them to New York on narco-terrorism charges. Vice President Delcy Rodríguez was sworn in on 5 January. The central judgment…
The Knights Dilemma: Evolution of Elite Warfare
On October 25, 1415, in a muddy French field, the age of the knight began to die. The Battle of Agincourt was a collision of peak military capability, the feudal knight, and the battlefield introduction of cheap massed fires from the British longbow. Thousands of armored nobles, bound by centuries of skill, ritual, and pride,…
China’s Fishing Flotillas as Paramilitary Economic Warfare
In the darkness of the eastern Pacific, a floating city of light drifts beyond Ecuador’s territorial waters. Hundreds of Chinese fishing vessels illuminate the horizon, their floodlights cutting through the night while satellite transponders flicker off one by one. To the untrained eye, this looks like ordinary commerce. To regional navies and maritime analysts, it…
What Large States Can Learn from Small States’ Total Defense Strategies
When Size Stops Being an Advantage Large nations often assume that sheer volume ensures survival. They trust in their populations, economies, and geographic depth to absorb shocks. Yet the last decade has demonstrated that abundance can conceal fragility. Critical systems fail not from external invasion but from slow corrosion of coordination and trust. Small states…
Political Will: The Secret Weapon in Great-Power Competition
The Fear That Governs Action Nuclear weapons define the outer boundary of great-power conflict, but it is not the warhead that decides whether a fighter jet is shot down or a convoy is struck. It is a matter of political will, the readiness of leaders, parliaments, and alliances to bear the risks of escalation. Capabilities…
Irregular Warfare in the Arctic: Why the High North Matters
The Arctic was once dismissed as a frozen frontier. For centuries, thick ice and harsh conditions kept the region isolated from global competition. That insulation is disappearing. Climate change has reduced sea ice cover, making the High North more accessible than ever before. New shipping routes such as the Northern Sea Route along Russia’s Siberian…
Deceived and Deployed: How Russia Lures Foreign Nationals Into Its War in Ukraine
The War That Found Them Russia is drawing foreign nationals from Asia, Africa, and Latin America into its war in Ukraine under false pretenses. They arrive believing they have secured legitimate jobs, university placements, or fast-track residency opportunities. Within days, or in some cases, mere hours, they find themselves on a battlefield they never agreed…