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Insurgent Governance and Civil Affairs: The Karen National Union
The Karen National Union (KNU) is an ethnic political and insurgent organization operating in southeastern Myanmar that has been engaged in a protracted conflict with the central government since 1949. As the political leadership of the Karen nationalist movement and the governing authority associated with the Karen National Liberation Army, the KNU has historically exercised…
Strait of Hormuz Irregular Warfare Analysis
The Commercial Shutdown Came First On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury, a joint air and maritime campaign targeting Iranian command infrastructure, ballistic missile sites, and naval assets. Within hours, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps began issuing warnings to vessels: no ship would be allowed to pass through the…
What is Hybrid Warfare? A Comprehensive Guide
Hybrid warfare is the coordinated use of military and non-military tools — including cyber attacks, disinformation, economic coercion, sabotage, proxy forces, and covert action — to achieve strategic objectives while remaining below the threshold of conventional armed conflict. The defining feature is not any single method, but the deliberate integration of multiple domains simultaneously, designed…
Karen National Union (KNU) Case Study
This case study applies the War Marketplace Framework (WMF) across three analytical levels — competition, structure, and strategy — to one of the world’s longest-running insurgencies: the conflict between the Karen National Union (KNU) and the Myanmar state. Rather than treating the Karen war as an ethnic rebellion, a counterinsurgency campaign, or a peripheral civil…
State-Insurgent Strategic Competition Part III
Contributor MOE GYO Moe Gyo is a writer and consultant working with ethnic organizations in Myanmar. Writing from the Thai–Myanmar borderlands, he draws on years of direct engagement with communities shaped by conflict and disrupted health systems. His work captures firsthand how resilience and informal support networks develop under prolonged irregular warfare. His writing has…
State—Insurgent Strategic Competition for Governance: PART II: The Market Forces of War
Contributor MOE GYO Moe Gyo is a writer and consultant working with ethnic organizations in Myanmar. Writing from the Thai–Myanmar borderlands, he draws on years of direct engagement with communities shaped by conflict and disrupted health systems. His work captures firsthand how resilience and informal support networks develop under prolonged irregular warfare. His writing has…
A Failed Coup in Guinea-Bissau
Overview of the Events In late 2025, elements linked to the security services in Guinea-Bissau attempted to seize control of key state facilities in the capital, Bissau. The episode unfolded over a short time window and did not escalate into sustained fighting. Loyal units retained control of core government sites, and the attempt collapsed before…
Venezuela Contingency Operation: Resistance Potential and Irregular Warfare Risk
Update (January 2026): In a major escalation of U.S.–Venezuelan tensions, U.S. special operations forces conducted a surprise military operation in early January 2026 that resulted in the capture and removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife from Caracas; both were transported to New York to face federal narco-terrorism charges. Maduro’s departure has created…